As the markets settle, France and Spain are co-favourites at 5/1, England 7/1, Brazil and Argentina trailing at 9/1 and 10/1. The dark horse with real teeth is Norway at 25/1 — eight wins from eight in qualifying, a +32 goal difference and the world's most lethal striker. Here's who can actually win it.
The favourites make sense. Spain's no-Madrid champions have the friendliest path of any contender; France carry the deepest attack even without Ekitike. England are priced on talent the manager chose to trim, which is its own kind of gamble.
But Norway are the bet that history has not yet caught up with: a generational forward line that battered everyone in qualifying, untested at this level for 28 years. In an expanded, sprawling 48-team format, one hot team can ride variance a very long way before the bracket corrects it.
The trophy usually goes to a favourite. The tournament is usually defined by someone nobody picked.
For managers, that same logic is where the fantasy differentials live.
Sources: ESPN — title odds · European Gaming — winner odds.